The newly elected Ukrainian parliament contains the largest number of pro-western representatives since the country regained independence in 1991, but Ukraine's woes are far from over, experts from Sidar Global Advisors (SGA), a Washington DC-based consultancy, said. “Ukraine’s tense relationship with Russia and Moscow’s opposition to Ukraine’s path toward Europe are likely to create significant hurdles to the new government’s efforts to adopt a reformist legislative agenda,” SGA experts stated in a report published shortly after October's elections.
SGA also expressed concerns about the fact that both sides of the conflict in Ukraine are not observing the ceasefire, saying that there needed to be a more stable agreement in that regard. Additionally, it said, the new government will also have to find a way of boosting the Ukrainian economy, which has been spiralling since the crisis.
“Ukraine’s economy is in dire straits, the country’s GDP is expected to shrink 10% this year, and the country is in desperate need of IMF [International Monetary Fund] financing,” SGA said. To make matters worse, the inflow of foreign investments have come to a near halt. According to data from greenfield investment monitor fDi Markets, there were 15 new projects in Ukraine in February, the month in which the Crimean crisis started, while there were just 10 projects recorded between March and August.
Parliamentary elections were held in October, but excluded voters in Russia-controlled Crimea and in some eastern provinces that are under the control of pro-Russian rebels. The results of the election, which were announced on October 30, saw the country's president, Petro Poroshenko's, Bloc party emerge victorious, with the People's Front party, led by incumbent prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, coming second.
“The elections are set to give Mr Poroshenko a pro-western mandate that will steer the country closer to Europe and end the conflict in the country’s east, which has caused significant instability and resulted in the deaths of more than 3700 people. We expect Mr Yatseniuk to keep his post as prime minister in the new government,” SGA experts predict.