Political uncertainty and the effects of the eurozone crisis will cause Kenya’s economic growth to lag behind that of other East African Community (EAC) countries in 2012, according to economic and market strategy research firm Roubini Global Economics. It is predicted that the country's gross domestic product will continue to increase in 2012 but at a slower rate than in other countries in the intergovernmental organisation.

Kenya’s chances of recovering from 2011’s economic setbacks caused by drought and the battle against inflation have been hindered by the International Criminal Court's (ICC's) confirmation that it will charge four of the six Kenyan government officials suspected of committing crimes against humanity. In late 2012, the ICC confirmed that it would be pressing criminal charges against Kenyan finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta, and a member of Kenyan parliament, William Ruto, both of whom were running as candidates in the country's presidential elections.


Roubini Global Economics predicts that, despite these charges, both candidates will continue to run in the election, which is predicted to be held at the end of this year. The research firm also cites Kenya's incursion into Somalia to fight the Al Shabaab terrorist group as a further strain on its economic growth.

“Kenya retains substantial barriers to business,” said Natznet Tesfay, head of Africa forecasting at the specialist intelligence company Exclusive Analysis. “It ranked 95th out of 183 countries in the World Bank 2010 index for ease of doing business. The current account deficit has grown as a result of high inflation and the shilling's depreciation. The implementation of the new constitution, 2012 presidential elections and the drop in FDI, from $658m in 2007 to $120m in 2010, creates a political environment that is likely to discourage the government from implementing tax hikes.”

In an online statement, World Bank economist Wolfgang Fengler maintained that Kenya could also continue to suffer as a result of the eurozone crisis. Kenya's main money-makers – tea, tourism and horticulture – generate $3bn per year in foreign exchange, with about one-third of trade done with Europe. Roubini Global Economics predicts that as economies across Europe look to reduce their outgoings, there will be a decreased demand for these non-essential items.