Alessandro Teixeira, president of WAIPA, which represents investment promotion agencies from 156 countries, said that crossborder investment levels would fall in 2009 because of tightening credit conditions and general risk aversion. Unctad, the United Nations’ trade and development arm, put total crossborder investment flows in 2008 at $1833bn, up 30% on the previous year.
Addressing WAIPA’s annual global meeting in Rio de Janeiro in November, Mr Teixeira said that 2008 crossborder flows had remained stable and the effects of the international financial crisis would be fully felt next year.
His comments mirror International Monetary Fund figures, released in October, which found the volume of world trade in goods was unchanged in August 2008 because trade and crossborder investment experience a time lag behind the overall economy. Economists are mostly in agreement that reductions in growth will continue next year and the volume of trade could begin to contract for the first time since 2002.
Mr Teixeira also said that within the falling volume of FDI, emerging economies will increase their share. Inward investment into emerging economies has grown to about 27%, from less than 20% a decade ago.
Meanwhile, Europe’s share had fallen from 49% to 43% and that of the US had decreased from 17% to 13%.