Half of the 10 countries hit hardest by the outflow of skilled and educated people last year were small island developing states, according to fDi’s analysis of data for 179 countries.

In 2022, the Polynesian island of Samoa was the most-impacted nation, with the highest possible ‘human capital and brain drain’ indicator score of 10 in the latest Fragile States Index, as compiled by non-profit The Fund for Peace. It was followed by Jamaica (9.1), Palestine (8.8) and Micronesia (8.7). Brain drain, which refers to large numbers of educated or professional people moving to live and work abroad, can weigh heavily on a country’s development prospects. 

Nate Haken, vice president of research and innovation at The Fund for Peace, says that in many island nations those who have the resources and are highly educated, such as entrepreneurs, physicians and academics, often emigrate to pursue opportunities abroad. “When you start to have a drain of these critical actors in a country, it can ultimately lead to a gap in human capital and capacity. This makes it harder to manage the economy, innovate, respond and govern,” he explains.

The Fund for Peace’s brain drain scores combine quantitative factors, such as net emigration flows per capita, with qualitative factors like political and climatic events that might influence the likelihood of people to leave a country. It is one of 12 interdependent indicators that make up its Fragile States Index which measures risks and vulnerability in countries across the globe.

In addition to small island developing states, countries in sub-Saharan Africa are also over-represented among those affected by human capital flight. Almost half (42) of the 89 countries that had a brain drain index score above the median of 5.5 are in sub-Saharan Africa, according to fDi’s analysis. 

While reasons for emigration differ between individuals and countries, brain drain is broadly driven by political, economic and environmental pressures. Labour shortages since the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as long-term ageing demographics, has led several countries competing to attract skilled people, which has accelerated brain drain from other countries.

High-income countries, which typically offer better economic opportunities and more political stability, tend to have much lower levels of human capital flight. In 2022, Australia had the lowest index score of 0.4, followed by Sweden (0.6), Norway (0.6), Canada (0.7) and Switzerland (0.8). Qatar, a rich petrostate, was the only Middle Eastern name to feature in the 10 countries with the lowest brain drain indicator scores.

Frédéric Docquier, a fellow at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, says that that highly-skilled people “tend to be more responsive to economic conditions and quality of institutions than the less educated”, which leads them to seek opportunities abroad. “Country size is another determinant of emigration rates,” he says, noting that large countries are usually more economically diverse and offer more opportunities for internal migration opportunities.

Brain drain, however, is a nuanced topic. Mr Docquier notes that when considering the poorest countries, several academic case studies and cross-country analyses show that selective emigration to wealthier countries boosts domestic human capital accumulation in the home country. 

“This turns the brain drain into a brain gain,” he says. For example, emigrants can help induce financial and political remittances, business links and transfers of knowledge to their home countries.

Diaspora living abroad, particularly those that are highly skilled, can contribute to easing trade, foreign direct investment and technology diffusion with their home countries, says Mr Docquier.