Extreme weather is thought to be the biggest threat to the global economy in 2024, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF)’s latest risk report, while misinformation has emerged as a key threat to global order over the coming years.

Published on January 10 ahead of this week’s Davos conference, the WEF’s Global Risk Report 2024, presents the findings of its annual risk survey where it sounds out responses  of over 1400 global risks experts, policymakers and business leaders. It offers an analysis of global risks over one-, two- and 10-year horizons.

Climate change biggest risk over next decade

Two thirds of the respondents to the Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024 find that  “extreme weather” as the biggest risk in 2024 following the hottest summer on record last year and ahead of the warming phase of the El Niño cycle likely to persist until May this year.

Four separate environmental risks, including extreme weather, biodiversity loss and natural resource shortages, top the World Economic Forum’s (WEF’s) Global Risks Report 2024 — an analysis of global economic risks over one-, two- and 10-year horizons — as many anticipate the effects of climate change to become more severe. 

But the understanding of environmental risks differs between generations, and between those in the private- and public-sectors, the report highlights. Younger respondents deem these risks to be of greater concern in the near term than older respondents, the survey finds. Additionally, it finds that those working in the private sector are more likely to think environmental risks will “materialise over a longer time frame” than their counterparts in the government or the third sector.

“This dissonance ... among key decision-makers implies sub-optimal alignment and decision-making,” the report says, which would in turn increase the risk of “missing key moments of intervention”.

Meanwhile, the risk of misinformation and disinformation has risen to become the biggest concern over a two-year timeframe. “No longer requiring a niche skill set, easy-to-use interfaces to large-scale artificial intelligence (AI) models have already enabled an explosion in falsified information and so-called ‘synthetic’ content,” the report says.

Despite efforts from governments and regulators, “there is a risk that some governments will act too slowly, facing a trade-off between preventing misinformation and protecting free speech, while repressive governments could use enhanced regulatory control to erode human rights,” the report adds.

The report also notes that as this year is set to be the biggest election year ever, the “widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments”.

“An unstable global order characterised by polarising narratives and insecurity, the worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty are causing accelerating risks — including misinformation and disinformation — to propagate,” said Saadia Zahidi, managing director of WEF, in a statement.

“World leaders must come together to address short-term crises as well as lay the groundwork for a more resilient, sustainable, inclusive future.”

Like misinformation, “interstate armed conflict” has also emerged as a key short-term risk in the minds of many, as the world finds itself grappling with wars in Europe and the Middle East.

Elsewhere, concerns over inflation are understood to become less significant in the future as they are now. The WEF report places inflation as the seventh-biggest risk among respondents over the next two years, yet it drops to 32nd over the next decade.

“Most economic risks fall rapidly in comparative rankings of risk perception over the next decade,” it says with the risk of “economic downturn” dropping from ninth biggest risk in the short-term to 28th in the long-term.