Artificial intelligence (AI) is the most exciting new tech arrival since at least the first iPhone and perhaps the internet itself. How will its arrival play out in the Middle East and Africa? 

The mobile phone revolution turned out to be more transformative in Africa than arguably any other continent, because it brought communication to 100% of adults where fixed-line coverage had barely covered 1% of the population. In the Middle East the impact was also political, with the Arab Spring of 2011 labelled ‘the first smartphone revolution’. Mobile phones cut the cost of communications, and benefited billions, including the unskilled. 

It is early days for AI, but so far it appears to be the opposite, namely, capital- and skills-intensive. This looks less relevant to Africa, given its shortage of capital and massive excess of relatively low-skilled labour. While the West’s white-collar workers might be anxious about AI replacing their well-paid desk jobs, AI presents no substantial threat to subsistence farming, textile work or motorcycle taxis. 

The Gulf countries are in a very different situation. They have trillions of dollars and a highly literate but relatively small population. In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is determined that his country will create the future via new cities like Neom. AI naturally fits this model and is popular. Seventy-six percent of Saudis say AI offers more benefits than drawbacks, compared with 37% of Germans. Oracle recently agreed to train 50,000 Saudi nationals (particularly youth and women) in areas such as AI. In 2019, Abu Dhabi established the world’s first AI-focused university, and two years before that the UAE became the first country to adopt a national AI strategy. If the Gulf does not succeed in driving AI growth, it will not be for want of trying. 

In its early stages, tech is often the plaything of the rich and powerful, be it the first motor car or the brick-like mobile phones of the 1980s. The benefits or even relevance of AI for most Africans are still hard to judge. But for now, it looks well-placed to thrive in the Gulf. 

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The author is head of macro-strategy at FIM Partners and author of The Time-Travelling Economist.

This article first appeared in the February/March 2024 print edition of fDi Intelligence.