The world of geopolitics is undergoing massive change. It is no longer just a risk: it has become a transformative force, reshaping society in unprecedented and radical ways. 

A new era of geopolitics has begun. We refer to this new era as ‘The Metamorphosis’. It is the guiding theme for our 2024 forecast, where we put together ten geopolitical themes to raise awareness among executives of the “new animal” that geopolitics has become — one that could threaten competitiveness and profitability over the next four quarters. 

America-free vs. America-first 

The world will be pulled in two very different directions when it comes to the US. Nations will continue ‘breaking free’ from the US, from currency to allegiance, embarking on a new future where Washington DC is not leading them (America-free).

Simultaneously, 2024 could see America-first 2.0 begin, where the country redesigns its relationship with the rest of the world in radical ways, putting its economic and national interests ahead of everything else.  

Fragmented AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) will become a new battlefield between nations. The stage is now set for nations to use AI to unleash chaos, whether in the form of deepfakes or sophisticated cyber-attacks. At the same time, the fight over AI will also revolve around governance (i.e. public policy) and data access. As nations clash in this new battlefield, it will further fragment the world, challenging decades of belief that technology can overcome differences and borders. 

Historical scrutiny 

Governments are becoming more paranoid than ever about how their capital and ideas are building competition. If this continues, it will result in countries requiring global firms to explain themselves, from why they approved certain investments to why they tied-up with specific companies, considering the geopolitical implications. 

Western disunity 

Internal differences that the West once looked over and swept aside will no longer be ignored. We expect the Western-bloc, the most unified alliance in modern history, to show clear signs of division and disarray, as Western capitals clash around the most pivotal issues, from technology governance to next sanctions, shaking the transatlantic order.

Relationships that were once considered unbreakable, like the US–EU, may continue to crack. This would lead to a massive void in global leadership, and could create gaps that non-Western nations seek to fill with their own ideas and approaches. 

Investor appeasement 

Investors will begin to analyse companies for their geopolitical readiness. So far, investors have analysed companies for shortcomings in areas like sustainability. Now, as geopolitics defines the success and future of businesses, regardless of industry or geography, global investors may begin to analyse/assess the geopolitical readiness of a company. 

Sustainable protectionism 

The world of geopolitics and sustainability looks set to converge in a new way, creating what is known as ‘green geopolitics’. A characteristic of this is sustainable protectionism. Nations are using sustainability to build geopolitical power, and will start to build ‘walls’ around sustainable projects, restricting who can access them. At the same time, sustainability itself could cause new friction that forces nations to behave in a protectionist way. 

World at war 

We expect the fallout of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza to snowball, challenging the global architecture that has held the world together since the end of the second world war. This would lead to the geopolitical flashpoints reshaping the world, from inducting new forms of globalisation, splitting the world into competing blocs. Behind all this, is an ominous warning: more geopolitical powder kegs could begin to explode around the world.

Geoeconomic blocs 

The world’s existing blocs will continue to evolve, and new blocs are expected to form around economic statecraft and geoeconomics. These blocs will likely be exclusive settings made up of a handful of nations with similar values and objectives, and would likely try to reshape the world in their image, from global trade to global rules. 

Sanctions immunity 

Sanctions, like blacklists and bans, will no longer be the end of the road for countries and companies. The idea of becoming immune to sanctions, which started after the Ukraine war began, will likely become a reality that the world has to contend with. 

Ejecting China 

We expect more countries to begin questioning their allegiance and ties to China, putting the rise of China to question.

A new reality is forming for the country: before Beijing reaches the same status as the US, governments are looking to distance themselves. For China, this is its most significant challenge in modern times, because it means they lacks the same magnetism as the US. 

Abishur Prakash is the founder of The Geopolitical Business, Inc, an advisory firm in Toronto, Canada. He is a global keynote speaker and the author of five books. His latest book is called The World Is Vertical.

To receive a copy of The Metamorphosis: A 2024 Geopolitical Forecast For Executives, please visit the following link.